Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 11.094989 12.726660 14.488151 16.527752 18.820819 21.315608 24.231702
2025-04-13 8.179475 10.265325 12.698055 15.731649 19.398827 23.673485 29.017292
2025-04-20 7.131628 9.474147 12.341909 16.085833 20.816463 26.564453 34.043013
2025-04-27 6.308605 8.820933 12.032802 16.399757 22.135839 29.361284 39.091135
2025-05-04 5.530748 8.095092 11.502105 16.302999 22.826165 31.303398 43.061354
2025-05-11 4.850011 7.409109 10.933200 16.065807 23.259384 32.876923 46.577655
2025-05-18 4.367940 6.939506 10.598372 16.088962 24.001774 34.852290 50.680347
2025-05-25 4.005847 6.600658 10.405996 16.275569 24.952786 37.128456 55.274243
2025-06-01 3.640631 6.215134 10.102728 16.259672 25.585789 38.961016 59.302256
2025-06-08 3.288865 5.812215 9.732471 16.101691 25.977453 40.439826 62.862243
2025-06-15 3.046518 5.559732 9.568318 16.235792 26.797382 42.560887 67.431070
2025-06-22 2.905631 5.460714 9.634900 16.727122 28.180127 45.568179 73.433041
2025-06-29 2.641381 5.130553 9.307484 16.574342 28.562346 47.107953 77.341508
2025-07-06 2.282975 4.598185 8.598847 15.740689 27.797659 46.831473 78.436663
2025-07-13 2.167234 4.493780 8.609222 16.107707 28.999643 49.678018 84.511764
2025-07-20 2.052257 4.378876 8.590009 16.417516 30.115657 52.428233 90.540518
2025-07-27 1.888215 4.152726 8.351853 16.322227 30.530905 54.049018 94.803267
2025-08-03 1.720725 3.902392 8.048019 16.084245 30.678039 55.222497 98.368097
2025-08-10 1.602721 3.740253 7.895206 16.107612 31.277388 57.166491 103.274003
2025-08-17 1.514454 3.631069 7.834139 16.294347 32.172057 59.640389 109.156322
2025-08-24 1.410300 3.477284 7.673188 16.278456 32.692959 61.486390 114.033759
2025-08-31 1.299998 3.298516 7.447654 16.120304 32.937582 62.852867 118.127373
2025-09-07 1.228344 3.199119 7.374943 16.254546 33.729769 65.207642 124.016616